Imagining the Future from the Past: Zero-Emission Space and Water Heating Standards
Cayden Luby
M.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering – Sustainable Design and Construction ‘25
When I was a kid, I remember being told “Don’t use up all the hot water and don’t touch the thermostat”. I’d reply, “Okay, Dad”, not giving a second thought to the equipment that controls either of those systems. All I knew was that they somehow connect to the evil “bills” he’d talk about every month. Since then, learning—and especially living—at Stanford, I’ve yet to pay a utility bill (thank you, student status), but my professors have absolutely mentioned heat pumps a time or two, or three. This summer, I am taking the second step from academic learning to real-world implementation with the California Air Resources Board.
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is the state agency responsible for air pollution control and oversees all climate change related efforts. I’ve been having the absolute privilege of working with the Zero-Emission Space and Water Heater Standards team in the Building Decarbonization Division at CARB.
Residential and non-residential buildings are responsible for roughly 37% of global GHG emissions. In California, buildings comprise 10% of emissions, with 80% from space and water heating. As part of the 2022 State Strategy for the State Implementation Plan (2022 State SIP Strategy), CARB committed to explore developing and proposing zero-emission GHG standards for new space and water heaters sold in California. These standards assist with meeting climate and air quality targets and improve public health.
A lot of my day to day has been data analysis, meeting with external stakeholders, presenting findings to the team, and rinsing and repeating. One of my projects is analyzing real-world data from heat pump projects across the state , including those funded by the TECH Clean California program. These programs act as catalysts for heat pump adoption to meet Governor Newsom’s 6 million heat pumps by 2030 goal. Part of my work has been identifying cost drivers in the residential sector to gain deeper insight into CARB’s proposed standards. One driver has been upgrading electric service panels. Figure 1 compares the total cost ranges for heat pump water heater installations that included, or didn’t include, service panel upsizing. The cost analysis portion of these standards are essential to its implementation, and it's been both rewarding, and a blast, to dive deep into project data.
Working at CARB has been a profoundly insightful experience. My time so far has transformed my understanding of academic theory to the concrete reality of policy in action. While the immediate air pollution that sparked landmark regulations like the catalytic converter was tangible for previous generations, the climate crisis presents a different challenge –its impacts often accrue slowly, out of sight. For someone born in 2002, truly grasping that past severity requires a reliance on my imagination. This begs the question: must we wait to feel the full brunt of climate change, or can our collective understanding and imagination guide us to make the proactive decisions our future demands?
